‘The current refusal of individuals to get vaccinated and how the impact of incentives can be explained with game theory’

The Corona vaccination dilemma

By Servaas Houben

SERVAAS HOUBEN is actuarial manager IFRS 4 and IFRS 17 at Ergo Belgium.

Servaas Houben takes a new look the classical prisoner’s dilemma and an application to COVID-19 vaccination.

 

Read the full article here.

 

Disclaimer:
This article represents the opinion of the author, and not necessarily the opinion of the AAE.

This article also appeared on the UK Actuary.

This article was published in The European Actuary No. 27 – September 2021

‘Predicting health costs is even more difficult now’

US Health Care in the Aftermath of the COVID-19 Pandemic

By Ed Pudlowski

ED PUDLOWSKI can be reached at Ed.Pudlowski@MorningStarActuarial.com

American baseball player, Yogi Berra, once quipped ‘It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future’. The effect of the pandemic over the past 18 months have been most challenging for health care actuaries and it’s not expected to get easier to predict costs over the next 12-24 months.

 

Read the full article here.

 

Disclaimer:
This article represents the opinion of the author, and not necessarily the opinion of the AAE.

 

This article was published in The European Actuary No. 27 – September 2021

‘How many COVID deaths are acceptable in order to return to some sort of normal living?’

Australia: from elimination to living with the virus

By Kirsten Armstrong

Until just a few months ago, most Australians thought they’d avoided the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic. In March 2020, we closed our international borders and soon after instituted mandatory quarantine for returning Australians. A strategy of virus suppression and, in some states, elimination has been systematically pursued.

Read the full article here.

 

Disclaimer:
This article represents the opinion of the author, and not necessarily the opinion of the AAE.

 

This article was published in The European Actuary No. 27 – September 2021

‘Theoretical risk margins differ from practical risk margins by different interpretations and imprecision’

Are the differences in risk margins meaningful?

By Andrew Henning and David Kirk

ANDREW HENNING is an actuary
focussing on non-life insurance
and financial modelling with
Milliman.
DAVID KIRK is a principal and consulting
actuary with Milliman in Africa, specialising in
financial reporting, market entry, and mergers
and acquisitions.

The risk margins included in technical provisions for solvency reporting are not the same across different regulatory regimes.

This is true even where the underlying principles guiding the regulatory approach seems quite similar. Some of these differences are subtle, but others reflect a fundamentally different view on the purpose of the risk margin.

Read the full article here.

 

Disclaimer:
This article represents the opinion of the authors, and not necessarily the opinion of the AAE.

 

This article was published in The European Actuary No. 27 – September 2021

‘Six scenarios to anticipate on global warming and the financial impacts’

Climate risk

By Ben Carr

BEN CARR is analytics and capital modelling director at Aviva plc.

The Paris Agreement came into force on 4 November 2016 and has been ratified by 185 countries to date. It aims to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change by keeping global temperature rises to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels.

Read the full article here.

 

Disclaimer:
This article represents the opinion of the author, and not necessarily the opinion of the AAE.

 

This article was published in The European Actuary No. 27 – September 2021

‘Managing a pandemic from a risk point of view’

Managing pandemic risk

Esko Kivisaari is the Immediate Past Chairperson at Actuarial Association of Europe. He sat down with Jennifer Baker to talk about the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the industry.

 

Watch the short impression of the recorded interview here.

 

Read the full article here.

 

Disclaimer:
This article represents the opinion of the interviewee, and not necessarily the opinion of the AAE.

 

This article was published in The European Actuary No. 27 – September 2021

New edition of The European Actuary

Issue 27, September 2021 of The European Actuary has been published.
The theme of this issue is Health/Pandemic.

 

Featured Articles:

  • Managing pandemic risk | Interview with Esko Kivisaari
  • Climate risk | by Ben Carr
  • Are the differences in risk margins meaningful? | by Andrew Henning and David Kirk
  • US health care in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic | by Edward M. Pudlowski
  • The corona vaccination dilemma | by Servaas Houben
  • Australia: From elimination to living with the virus | by Kirsten Armstrong

 

Please visit the webpage of The European Actuary on the AAE website for prior issues or further details.