Underestimating tail risks from climate change

Published September 2023
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WHY NATURAL CATASTROPHE FREQUENCY-SEVERITY ADJUSTMENTS UNDERESTIMATE TAIL RISKS FROM CLIMATE CHANGE

by Cameron Rye

Cameron Rye is Head of Modelling Research and Innovation within the WTW Research Network.

Climate scenario analysis has advanced significantly in recent years, with many insurers now adjusting natural catastrophe models to explore how physical risks could change over the coming decades. Extreme weather events – such as windstorms, floods, and wildfires – are projected to become more frequent and severe in many parts of the world. As a result, actuaries, catastrophe modelers, and regulators have focused their attention on methods for modifying frequency-severity relationships.

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Disclaimer:

This article represents the opinion of the author, and not necessarily the opinion of the AAE.

This article was published in The European Actuary No. 35 – September 2023

The European Actuary Magazine