AI: OK?

Esko Kivisaari
Chairperson AAE Artificial Intelligence-Data Science Working Group

 

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been a hot topic for a long time now, and is a development which promises to further transform many aspects of our lives. To understand what this could mean for actuaries, we should start from something we are certain of: data sets are the foundation for predictions which underpin risk measurement. Machine learning and other AI tools make it possible to consider vastly expanded data sets, and as such to potentially develop entirely new ways to evaluate and analyse risks.

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New leaf or empty promise?

Jérôme Crugnola-Humbert
Current Chairperson AAE Sustainability and Climate-related Risks Working Group
 
Frank Schiller
Past Chairperson AAE Sustainability and Climate-related Risks Working Group

 

It’s a familiar enough storyline, in fiction and in life: a protagonist who agrees to try again with the disappointing ex when they show up with lavish assurances that they’ve turned over a new leaf, they understand what you need from them, and they are ready to make it work this time. The appeal of an earnest promise is undeniable – but what happens when that promise is not backed up with action? Doesn’t each new letdown make the relationship a little less worthwhile to maintain?

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Europe faces extraordinary challenges

Lutz Wilhelmy
Chairperson AAE

 

 

The title is really an understatement. Compared to one year ago, the news items in newspapers, tv and social media are dominated by alarming news and crises.

 

Stripping them down a little we start with the ongoing transformation for more sustainability, including the ‘greening of economies’, but certainly not restricted to this. We all experience warmer summers and drying up rivers, but also more extreme weather events like floods.

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Shit happens!

Esko Kivisaari
Past Chairperson AAE
Chairperson AAE Advisory Panel
Chairperson AAE Artifical Intelligence/Data Science Working Group

 

All economic activity can result into damage to the environment. Some activities are riskier than others. When shit happens, when damage occurs remedial actions are necessary. Such actions are more or less costly depending on the damage.

 

The European Union has adopted in 2004 the Environment Liability Directive (ELD), the purpose of which is to implement the ‘polluter pays’ principle, i.e., the one who has caused the damage also pays for the remedial action. There are now plans to renew the ELD. One of the difficulties of implementing the ‘polluter pays’ principle is that the actor responsible for the liability might no longer exist when the damage is found out.

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Make sure to block your calendar for the AAE sessions at CONVENTION A!

Inga Helmane, AAE Board member

Connecting Knowledge! A great theme for CONVENTION A and certainly in line with the AAE’s strategic objectives.

AAE is proud to be hosting two session slots at Convention A. The theme is appealing and reflects all aspects of the AAE’s strategic objectives.

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The ECA tradition goes on: European actuaries meet in less than two weeks

Maria Kamenarova,
Chairperson AAE

Wilhelm Schneemeier,
Chairperson ECA Steering Committee

 

With a one-year delay – due to the global Corona pandemic, of course – the upcoming fourth edition of the European Congress of Actuaries on June 2 and 3 in Madrid, Spain, will finally offer again the opportunity to watch exciting presentations from in front of the stage, to discuss face-to-face hot topics with the speakers and the audience, as well as to network with colleagues from all over Europe and beyond.

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How to retire with dignity

Esko Kivisaari
Past Chairperson AAE
Chairperson AAE Advisory Panel
Chairperson AAE Artifical Intelligence/Data Science Working Group

 

A colleague of mine stayed some years ago for some time in a developing country. His wife worked in a telecommunications firm so this colleague had time to continue his studies. He also spent some time consulting the local insurance association.

 

One of the successful programs was called ‘How to retire with dignity’. The target group consisted of army officers, policemen, prison guards and so on. The idea was to convert corrupted money into an insurance policy so that the dirty origin became hidden. And it was also good risk management, anticipating a possible regime change and making the money inaccessible for new rulers.

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Sustainability and Climate Change: Main positions of the AAE

Frank Schiller
Chairperson AAE Sustainability and Climate-related Risks Working Group
Vice-chairperson AAE Risk Management Committee

 

The current Assessment Report 6 of the IPCC is quite clear: “Emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities are responsible for approximately 1.1°C of warming since 1850-1900” and “many of the changes observed in the climate are unprecedented in thousands […] of years.” Warming beyond 1.5°C will increase physical consequences significantly. At approximately 2°C irreversible tipping points in the climate system will be reached. Consequently, almost all countries committed in the 2015 Paris Agreement to a 1.5°C warming target and this target has been confirmed at the COP26 in Glasgow 2021.

 

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How to Eat an Elephant – on the insurability of a pandemic

Esko Kivisaari
Past Chairperson AAE
Chairperson AAE Advisory Panel
Chairperson AAE Artifical Intelligence/Data Science Working Group

 

Desmond Tutu once wisely said that “there is only one way to eat an elephant: a bite at a time.” What he meant by this is that everything in life that seems daunting, overwhelming, and even impossible can be accomplished gradually by taking on just a little at a time.

 

The consequences of the current Covid-19 pandemic are huge and they dwarf most elephants. The number of human tragedies is immense although insurers seem to get along with the consequences in life and death. A different issue is business interruption where most existing policies do not cover the losses. A good question is whether it would be possible to extend business interruption cover in such a way that also situations like this would be covered.

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Recipe for success

Monique Schuilenburg
AAE Operations Manager

 

A different angle sometimes helps to put everything in perspective. Let me give you a look behind the scenes. I am taking the recently held EAD2021 as a reference, but frankly this is a blueprint for most of the AAE events regardless of the scale.

 

Preparation is key for everything we do and even more so for an event like EAD. As spectator or participant you may not be aware of the amount of work that needs to be done.

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