Charity never faileth

Esko Kivisaari

Chairperson AAE Artificial Intelligence – Data Science Working Group

 

Large Language Models (LLMs) like ChatGPT might finally bring with them the long-awaited benefits of AI. It is not clear what they will mean in practice and how fast their adoption will be.

While LLMs have stolen a major share of publicity AI is also proceeding in other areas. It has been used, e.g., in opening the folding of proteins (previously thought to be an impossible feat) and finding prototypes for new antibiotics (critically helpful with more and more resistant bacteria). Actuaries need to understand the possibilities and threats introduced by AI. We might see in the coming years an ActuaryGPT (Generative Pretrained Transformer) giving us better tools in our day-to-day work. We should also think of unsolved actuarial problems that could be manageable with AI, mirroring the successes with proteins and medicine.

Actuaries need to understand how they can, based on their long experience with complex models, bring their expertise to this novel area, and also warn of the possible dangers with models that might be used when assumptions they are based on are not valid or when the tools are used in areas where their validity has not been tested. Actuaries can also help regulators in safeguarding that new legislation like the AI Act will be successfully implemented. One element of this will be to develop tools in explainable artificial intelligence (XAI).

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Get to grips with inflation risks

Jason Wiebe

Member of the AAE Risk Management Committee

 

Inflation at 6.8% in Germany… 9% in Estonia… 19.9% in Hungary… 6.4% for the EU as a whole*. These unfamiliar conditions in the macroeconomic environment have been in the headlines for some time, but what do the changes signal? What can be done to mitigate negative impacts? What inflation scenarios should we keep in mind?

With inflation rates in some European countries hitting levels not seen for 40 years, entire generations of practicing actuaries have no experience of a high-inflation environment. Given that inflation is a factor which can be expected to affect every part of the economy, this represents a critical gap in knowledge. With this in mind, and to support the actuarial community in effectively understanding the specific uncertainties that arise from inflation risks, the AAE has published A Primer on Inflation Risk Management. This is a discussion paper which serves as a comprehensive introductory explainer on this key topic.

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Welcoming our new chairperson, Giampaolo Crenca

Giampaolo Crenca

Chairperson AAE

 

After a term as Vice-Chairperson, Giampaolo Crenca has now been appointed Chairperson of the AAE, with Inga Helmane stepping into the role of Vice-Chairperson. In his first address to the General Assembly, the new Chairperson promised continuity alongside evolution, outlined a 3-year strategic plan and spoke about how an actuary is like an artist.

Giampaolo Crenca lives and works in Italy, where he has been deeply involved with multiple national actuarial organisations over many years. During his 30-year career he has been a valued consultant actuary, lectured at universities on the subject of actuarial and financial mathematics, and authored a number of books and articles, as well as gaining a PhD in Actuarial Science. More recently he has actively taken up various roles in AAE, including as Membre Titulaire, a member of the editorial board of The European Actuary and of the Communication Panel, and seats on a number of task forces – so while his qualifications are clear, one may need to read between the lines to understand that he is also a truly passionate advocate for the profession.

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AAE Social Security Forum 2023: Shaping the Future of Social Security

Maria Economou

Chairperson Social Security Subcommittee

 

AAE Social Security Forum 2023: Shaping the Future of Social Security

November 2, 2023 – Online Only

 

Are you concerned about the future of social security and interested in engaging in discussions with leading experts in the field? The Actuarial Association of Europe (AAE) is here to provide answers. Following the resounding success of previous webinars addressing critical aspects of Social Security, the AAE is proud to present the AAE Social Security Forum 2023—an exclusive online event that promises to be both enlightening and thought-provoking.

 

About the Event

In today’s rapidly changing world, the landscape of Social Security is constantly evolving, presenting new challenges and opportunities. The AAE recognizes the need for ongoing discussions and collaboration to address these issues effectively. The AAE Social Security Forum 2023 is designed to be a platform for actuaries and stakeholders to delve deeper into the complexities and challenges facing Social Security in our times.

This full-day online event is scheduled for Thursday, November 2, 2023, and will be a unique gathering of experts, policymakers, and thought leaders. The forum will not only focus on the broader European perspective but will also engage with representatives from the national countries of AAE’s member associations.

 

Why Attend?

In-Depth Insights: Gain valuable insights from leading experts and policymakers on the current state of Social Security and the challenges it faces.

Networking Opportunities: Connect with professionals from European institutions and member associations, fostering meaningful collaborations.

Thought-Provoking Discussions: Engage in thought-provoking discussions on the future of Social Security and the role of actuaries in shaping it.

 

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The AAE view on insurance and sustainability

Jérôme Crugnola-Humbert
Chairperson AAE Sustainability and Climate-Related Risks Working Group

 

The times have changed: with growing understanding of the climate emergency and its far-reaching consequences, stakeholders on all sides are insisting sustainability is tangibly integrated across the full spectrum of products and businesses. In the insurance sector this is evident as a general expectation – now held by investors, policyholders, regulators and employees – that companies will make a clear transformation and become providers of sustainable solutions.

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Save the date! European Actuarial Day – 27 June 2023

Lutz Wilhelmy
AAE Chairperson

 

Open those diaries and calendar apps: European Actuarial Day is returning – and you are all invited to take part, free of charge!

 

The first European Actuarial Day was conceived in 2021 as a virtual conference to fill the gap left by the postponed European Congress of Actuaries. The event was a great success, featuring contributions from 40 speakers from all walks of the profession and ultimately reached an audience of more than 250 participants. So we have decided it’s time to bring it back – and with 600 people already registered to attend this time, it’s set to be even better.

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AAE meets stakeholders to discuss Solvency II and sustainability

Giampaolo Crenca
AAE Vice-Chairperson

Frank Schiller
AAE Board member

In its role representing its professional actuarial members, a key function of the Actuarial Association of Europe (AAE) is maintaining meaningful and productive dialogue with leading participants and European agencies handling policies relevant to our field.

 

The AAE is regularly in contact with the most influential stakeholders, and we have been able to come to the table for meetings with Insurance Europe, the European Insurance & Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA) and the European Commission’s DG FISMA. We are optimistic that our recent input is already making a meaningful impact, specifically in terms of climate matters and the review of Solvency II.

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Supply chain management: Where are the actuaries of the future?

Inga Helmane
AAE Board member – Chairperson Communications Panel

 

Astronaut, nurse, firefighter… actuary? It may not be high on the list of childhood dreams, but for young people with talent in mathematics, a career as an actuary has a great deal to offer. However, it’s becoming increasingly clear that we need to work harder to get that message out.

 

For several years now, the Actuarial Association of Europe (AAE) has been gathering data to identify and monitor risks, and the issue of there being an adequate “supply” of new actuaries to meet changing professional demand is always in mind. Even though our membership is constantly on the increase, given that we expect actuaries to gain significance in more and more fields, continued growth is important. This naturally leads to related matters, namely: The risk of the actuarial profession becoming less appealing to career starters, experiencing shortages of necessary competencies, and losing relevance.

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AI: OK?

Esko Kivisaari
Chairperson AAE Artificial Intelligence-Data Science Working Group

 

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been a hot topic for a long time now, and is a development which promises to further transform many aspects of our lives. To understand what this could mean for actuaries, we should start from something we are certain of: data sets are the foundation for predictions which underpin risk measurement. Machine learning and other AI tools make it possible to consider vastly expanded data sets, and as such to potentially develop entirely new ways to evaluate and analyse risks.

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New leaf or empty promise?

Jérôme Crugnola-Humbert
Current Chairperson AAE Sustainability and Climate-related Risks Working Group
 
Frank Schiller
Past Chairperson AAE Sustainability and Climate-related Risks Working Group

 

It’s a familiar enough storyline, in fiction and in life: a protagonist who agrees to try again with the disappointing ex when they show up with lavish assurances that they’ve turned over a new leaf, they understand what you need from them, and they are ready to make it work this time. The appeal of an earnest promise is undeniable – but what happens when that promise is not backed up with action? Doesn’t each new letdown make the relationship a little less worthwhile to maintain?

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